Free tool. Innovation portfolio expected value, with its range.
Weigh each project’s possible revenue by its chance of getting there, add them up and keep the range. One number without a range hides how much you are guessing.
What is a portfolio’s weighted value?
A portfolio’s weighted value is the sum, for every project, of its possible year-three revenue multiplied by its probability of reaching revenue. Using the low and high estimates of both gives a range, which is the honest way to report it.
How it is calculated
The same formula FounderFold uses in its board reports.
Estimate revenue as a range
For each project, year-three revenue as low, central and high.
Estimate the probability as a range
The chance of reaching revenue from its current stage, also low, central and high.
Multiply and add up
Central = revenue × probability. Low = low revenue × low probability. High = high revenue × high probability. The portfolio is the sum.
Declare the assumptions
Where each probability comes from, and the date. The result shows them under the number.
Reference for a solo founder: validation 21% (15–33%), MVP 46% (33–74%). A declared assumption from FounderFold’s catalog, not your data.
Weak analogues: the high end of the MVP range is biased upward by self-selection, levels.io is one founder well above average, and I-Corps measures company creation, not revenue.
Sources
- Davidsson (2006), review of PSED studies: 33–50% of start-up efforts become firms that trade · consulted October 5, 2026
- Pieter Levels, project list: 20 of 39 for-profit projects made money · consulted October 5, 2026
- TrustMRR census by mifanr, data of 2026-09-04: 7,496 of 10,150 listed products have earned revenue · consulted October 5, 2026
- NSF I-Corps, testimony of Dawn Tilbury to the U.S. House, 2017-12-06: 1,000+ teams funded, 450+ startups created · consulted October 5, 2026
Value your portfolio
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Worked example
Four projects of a fictional insurer. Figures are illustrative. An indicative calculation for your own decisions; it is not financial or investment advice.
Illustrative data — Fictional company, ideas and figures, shown for illustration only.| Project | Stage | Year-3 revenue (low / central / high) | Probability (low / central / high) | Weighted value (low / central / high) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Event cancellation for small venues | Validation | €1.5M · €2.5M · €4M | 12% · 18% · 20% | €0.18M · €0.45M · €0.8M |
| Cyber insurance for dental clinics | Validation | €1.5M · €2.5M · €4M | 12% · 18% · 20% | €0.18M · €0.45M · €0.8M |
| Landlord rent guarantee | Minimum product | €2.3M · €4.6M · €7M | 30% · 35% · 41% | €0.69M · €1.61M · €2.87M |
| Working-dog insurance | First revenue | €0.3M · €0.5M · €0.8M | 80% · 90% · 95% | €0.24M · €0.45M · €0.76M |
| Portfolio | €1.29M · €2.96M · €5.23M |
FAQ
What is the expected value of an innovation portfolio?
The sum, over all projects, of each one’s possible revenue multiplied by its probability of reaching it. It turns a list of bets into one figure you can compare over time.
Why show a range instead of one number?
Both revenue and probability are estimates. Multiplying the low and the high ends shows how wide the uncertainty is; a single number hides it.
Where should the probabilities come from?
Ideally from your own past projects: how many that reached each stage went on to earn revenue. Until you have five or more closed cases, use a declared reference and say so.
Is this the same as risk-adjusted NPV?
It is a simpler cousin: it weights one year’s revenue by probability, without discounting cash flows. It is meant for comparing early-stage projects, not for valuing a company.
Are my figures stored anywhere?
No. The calculator runs in your browser and keeps your figures only there until you clear them.
What FounderFold adds
- Probabilities come from your own closed cases once there are five or more, with a 90% interval; until then, a declared reference.
- Each figure in the board report traces back to the project file it came from.
- Gate debt and kill criteria under watch sit next to the value, so a big number does not hide a stalled project.
This calculator keeps nothing: your figures stay in your browser.